Rules: $100 → $300 target. Max 3 plays/day, max 5% bankroll/play, max 2-leg parlays.
Quarter-Kelly sizing. Strict CLV scoring (morning lock price only).
Stop-loss at $50. Status reason: freshness_restored
Tomorrow's locked plays
⏳ No markets posted yet Kalshi hasn't posted match markets for this date yet (common for weekend finals, which get priced same-day). This is NOT a rejected slate — there were no candidates to evaluate. The lock re-runs automatically when markets appear.
Today's results
:zzz: REST DAY — 20 candidates, none qualified. Real candidates were evaluated; the strategy filters (surface ELO, rank divergence, Polymarket divergence, Pinnacle 5pp anchor, Lane P 4pp) rejected every one. Reasons:
2× edge 2.6pp below 3
2× edge 1.7pp below 3
2× edge 1.2pp below 3
1× pinnacle edge 0.1pp below 1
1× surface elo disadvantage -124
Discipline > forced action. No pick = no loss.
Yesterday's grades
⏳ No markets posted yet Kalshi hasn't posted match markets for this date yet (common for weekend finals, which get priced same-day). This is NOT a rejected slate — there were no candidates to evaluate. The lock re-runs automatically when markets appear.
• The lanes found no qualifying edge: every Pinnacle-anchored candidate either disagreed with our model >5pp, or Kalshi was already efficient vs Pinnacle (no Lane P divergence ≥4pp).
Lesson
A REST day is a correct output, not a failure. Forcing picks at wide Pinnacle deltas is exactly what cost us in May. The system sits out efficient markets and waits for genuine Kalshi-vs-Pinnacle lag.
• The lanes found no qualifying edge: every Pinnacle-anchored candidate either disagreed with our model >5pp, or Kalshi was already efficient vs Pinnacle (no Lane P divergence ≥4pp).
Lesson
A REST day is a correct output, not a failure. Forcing picks at wide Pinnacle deltas is exactly what cost us in May. The system sits out efficient markets and waits for genuine Kalshi-vs-Pinnacle lag.
• The lanes found no qualifying edge: every Pinnacle-anchored candidate either disagreed with our model >5pp, or Kalshi was already efficient vs Pinnacle (no Lane P divergence ≥4pp).
• Top rejection: edge 2.6pp below 3
Lesson
A REST day is a correct output, not a failure. Forcing picks at wide Pinnacle deltas is exactly what cost us in May. The system sits out efficient markets and waits for genuine Kalshi-vs-Pinnacle lag.
Paper-only. CLV scored against Pinnacle close. Status auto-transitions to WON @ $300, LOST @ $50.
Rebuilds daily via run_challenge_tennis.py. Back to Tennis HQ