✅ Bankroll Challenge · ACTIVE

$94.80 / $300

PnL $-5.20 · peak $110.56 · stop $50
-2.6% of journey to $300
← Tennis HQ research 🎾 Tournament Tracker → Live EdgeBoard
Rules: $100 → $300 target. Max 3 plays/day, max 5% bankroll/play, max 2-leg parlays. Quarter-Kelly sizing. Strict CLV scoring (morning lock price only). Stop-loss at $50. Status reason: freshness_restored

Today's locked plays

:zzz: REST DAY — 8 candidates, none qualified.
Real candidates were evaluated; the strategy filters (surface ELO, rank divergence, Polymarket divergence, Pinnacle 5pp anchor, Lane P 4pp) rejected every one. Reasons:Discipline > forced action. No pick = no loss.

Yesterday's grades

:zzz: REST DAY — 9 candidates, none qualified.
Real candidates were evaluated; the strategy filters (surface ELO, rank divergence, Polymarket divergence, Pinnacle 5pp anchor, Lane P 4pp) rejected every one. Reasons:Discipline > forced action. No pick = no loss.

Equity curve 17 data points

$300$50$100$94.802026-06-222026-10-09

Lane performance live since 2026-06-22

LanenW-LWin rateMean CLVP&LWeight
Backfill seed (n=28)28——+3.42pp$+0.19—
Live (n=19, post-launch)19———$+1.59—
A · Pinnacle-anchored (model+Pin)159-60.600+3.42pp$-0.7030%
P · Pinnacle-direct (Kalshi vs Pin)42-20.500—$+2.2950%
C · 2-0 sweep dominance00-0——$+0.0020%

Recent lessons

2026-10-15

Challenge lessons - 2026-10-15

Day summary

• Balance: $94.80 (unchanged) — REST DAY, 0 picks locked
• The lanes found no qualifying edge: every Pinnacle-anchored candidate either disagreed with our model >5pp, or Kalshi was already efficient vs Pinnacle (no Lane P divergence ≥4pp).
• Top rejection: pinnacle edge -1.1pp below 1

Lesson

A REST day is a correct output, not a failure. Forcing picks at wide Pinnacle deltas is exactly what cost us in May. The system sits out efficient markets and waits for genuine Kalshi-vs-Pinnacle lag.
2026-10-16

Challenge lessons - 2026-10-16

Day summary

• Balance: $94.80 (unchanged) — REST DAY, 0 picks locked
• The lanes found no qualifying edge: every Pinnacle-anchored candidate either disagreed with our model >5pp, or Kalshi was already efficient vs Pinnacle (no Lane P divergence ≥4pp).
• Top rejection: edge 1.2pp below 3

Lesson

A REST day is a correct output, not a failure. Forcing picks at wide Pinnacle deltas is exactly what cost us in May. The system sits out efficient markets and waits for genuine Kalshi-vs-Pinnacle lag.
2026-10-17

Challenge lessons - 2026-10-17

Day summary

• Balance: $94.80 (unchanged) — REST DAY, 0 picks locked
• The lanes found no qualifying edge: every Pinnacle-anchored candidate either disagreed with our model >5pp, or Kalshi was already efficient vs Pinnacle (no Lane P divergence ≥4pp).
• Top rejection: edge 1.2pp below 3

Lesson

A REST day is a correct output, not a failure. Forcing picks at wide Pinnacle deltas is exactly what cost us in May. The system sits out efficient markets and waits for genuine Kalshi-vs-Pinnacle lag.

Data freshness

Kalshi DB: 0.0hEdges CSV: 0.0hPinnacle live: 0.0hResults DB: 0.0h
Paper-only. CLV scored against Pinnacle close. Status auto-transitions to WON @ $300, LOST @ $50.
Rebuilds daily via run_challenge_tennis.py. Back to Tennis HQ